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Dollar General: Service Level Investments to Secure Customer Loyalty

Dollar General reported solid Q4 2022 sales and earnings growth with comparable-store increases of +5.7%. Management is pleased with market share gains in both consumables and non-consumables.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 17, 2023

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Dollar General: Service Level Investments to Secure Customer Loyalty

Dollar General reported solid Q4 2022 sales and earnings growth with comparable-store increases of +5.7%. Management is pleased with market share gains in both consumables and non-consumables.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 17, 2023

Off-Price Retail: Entering 2023 in “Chase-Mode”

Q4 2022 updates for off-price retailers reaffirmed many past themes including the the importance of “value” and “surprise and delight” merchandise as well as physical stores.

RJ Hottovy
Mar 17, 2023

Specialty Apparel Retail: Stepping Into 2023 on a Stronger Foot

Q4 2022 results for specialty apparel retailers were mixed with those catering to the more affluent and associated with wear-to-work wear outperforming on sales and profitability.

RJ Hottovy
Mar 17, 2023

Home Furnishing Retail: Consolidation and Store Size Optimization Ahead?

2022 was a tough year for home furnishing retailers, but the start of 2023 saw the category narrow the gap with other discretionary retail categories and benefit from inventory clearance events.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 17, 2023

Brewing up Business: Breweries and Pubs’ Seasonal Traffic

We analyzed visitation metrics for breweries, sports bars, and pubs to understand how consumers are embracing out-of-home experiences and getting together with friends.

Caroline Wu
Mar 17, 2023

Grocery-Anchored Centers: Holding Strong

Grocery-anchored centers proved to be the most resilient during Covid and remain a steady source of foot traffic. These centers are some of the best-performing malls in 2023.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 17, 2023

Dick’s Sporting Goods: Visitor Acquisition Strategies Driving Share Gains

With Dick’s Sporting Goods Q4 2022 update this week, we revisit some of our previous analysis on the chain and trends in the broader sporting goods retail category for the long-term.

RJ Hottovy
Mar 10, 2023

Ulta: A Thing of Beauty

Ulta’s Q4 2022 confirmed the durability of the beauty category as a whole, and supported the idea that consumers are returning to the office, events, and other social activities.

RJ Hottovy
Mar 10, 2023

Department Stores Q4 2022 Updates: Glad to Have 2022 in the Rearview Mirror

Fiscal Q4 2022 was a disruptive period for department stores. Tailwinds were few and headwinds – substantial, impacting the end of year results for Macy's, Dillard's, Kohl's and Nordstrom.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 10, 2023

Small Format Grocery: Learnings from Grocery Outlet & Sprouts

Grocery Outlet and Sprouts Farmers Market reported positive Q4 2022 updates and both companies are seeking to accelerate openings of new locations and markets in 2023 and 2024.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 10, 2023

The Mane Attraction: Haircare reigns for Drybar, Blo Blow Dry Bar, and Madison Reed

March celebrates Women’s History Month, and thus we are turning attention to female entrepreneurs who have created iconic brands that we see in retail and dining.

Caroline Wu
Mar 10, 2023

Kroger/Albertsons: On Track for Early 2024

Updates from Kroger's Q4 2022 update including the impact of food inflation, wage investments, and order fulfillment channels. Additionally, the Albertsons merger remains on track.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 3, 2023

Target: Getting Its Mojo Back, Inventories Look Good

Target's Q4 2022 update reported clean inventories and the continued success of the Ulta Beauty partnership. Target's December visitation momentum carried well into the new year.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 3, 2023

Dollar Stores: Dreiling Re-Energizing Dollar Tree & Family Dollar

On its Q4 2022 earnings release, Dollar Tree’s new CEO Rick Dreiling noted the positive direction of the chain and his ambition to drive further store productivity and accelerated growth.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 3, 2023

Auto Parts Retail: Entering 2023 In Top Gear, with a New Driver for Team Advance

Auto parts retail enters 2023 at a continued high pace as miles driven, the increasing age of vehicles on the road, high used car prices, and plentiful jobs continue to drive demand.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 3, 2023

Brick-and-Mortar Bookstores: Barnes & Noble Making a Comeback

Barnes & Noble's strong foot traffic goes hand in hand with the chain's announcement that it will increase its physical footprint in 2023. We reviewed the recent visit trends in the book retail category.

Caroline Wu
Mar 3, 2023

Box Office Update: Medium-Term Outlook Continues to Brighten

Major media companies and movie studios are pivoting their priorities from solely streaming to giving more consideration to the theatrical window and the exhibition industry.

Thomas Paulson
Mar 3, 2023

Walmart’s 2023: Helping People Save Money and Live a Better Life

As inflation for groceries has remained higher and for longer than management expected, the double-digit rate is depressing sales of Walmart’s discretionary merchandise, which carry higher margins.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 24, 2023

Home Depot: Moderation Demand in 2023 Amid Consumer Price Sensitivity, but Long-Term Demand Story Intact

On its Q4 2022 update The Home Depot called for a “year of moderation in demand for home improvement”, citing an increase in price sensitivity and the ongoing shift away from goods to services.

RJ Hottovy
Feb 24, 2023

Public Storage: Self-Storage Demand Resilient

The last few years have driven increased demand in self-storage as more people worked from home and migrated to other parts of the country and businesses reassessed their real estate needs.

Caroline Wu
Feb 24, 2023

Fore!: Things Looking up for Top Golf Courses

Golf was one of the sports that saw a resurgence during Covid-19 as people sought out amply spaced outdoor activities. And golf course foot traffic has remained relatively resilient.

Caroline Wu
Feb 24, 2023

L'Oreal: 2023 Outlook and Retailer Implications

L'Oréal reported an exquisite Q4 2022 and its outlook for 2023 implies ongoing outsized growth for the beauty category and its retail partners. Beauty, especially prestige beauty, is one of the most durable growth categories of consumer spending.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 17, 2023

Restaurant Roundup: Looking for 2023's Narrative

2023 is shaping up to be the year where restaurants and retailers look to take the learnings from the past several years and maximize returns on their physical store assets.

RJ Hottovy
Feb 17, 2023

Love is in the Air: Jewelry, Chocolates, and Bath and Body Products for Valentine's Day

With Valentine’s Day this past week, sweets, flowers, cards, and jewelry purchases immediately come to mind. And indeed these categories saw a spike in foot traffic around the holiday.

Caroline Wu
Feb 17, 2023

Expedia and Bookings Holding Q4 2022: Revenge Travel to Persist Through 1H23

The results from Airbnb and Expedia demonstrate that the 1H 2023 is going to be a bountiful period for travel and tourism. Both companies stated that demand, in the form of bookings, remains high.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 17, 2023

Disney: What the Return of Iger Means

Bob Iger first became CEO in 2005 and his return is a chance for him to “course correct” some of Disney’s approaches and priorities, mainly the streaming and theme parks businesses.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 17, 2023

Electric Vehicles: More on Toyota Joining Battle Royale

Toyota has reconsidered its approach to the internal combustion engine and is now embracing EV, accelerating development of parts and manufacturing methods optmized for electric vehicles.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 17, 2023

CAVA: What its IPO Means for the Future of Fast Casual

With Cava and other dining chains looking towards potential initial public offerings, this marks the most activity for restaurants looking to tap the public equity markets for funding since 2H 2021.

RJ Hottovy
Feb 10, 2023

Food Fight: Grocers Begin to Demand Lower Prices from Suppliers‍

Numerous news articles have begun to circulate about grocers looking to prevent shoppers from turning to discount stores as well as concerted effort to sharpen the value of their private brands.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 10, 2023

JD Sports: Stepping on the Gas

JD Sports hosted a “capital markets day” where they provided an update on the brand's business strategy. This includes an acceleration of store openings and conversions.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 10, 2023

Decker’s: Will HOKA Lap Nike Running?

HOKA brand sales increased +$225M YoY (or +$1B annualized) during the company's December-end quarter, and the brand has a good chance of nearing $2.8B in retail sales this year.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 10, 2023

VF Corporation: What Refocusing Looks Like

VF's divisional details show The North Face holding onto growth, while Vans continues to falter with sales down -13% in the U.S. This is a trend that is expected to continue in the near term.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 10, 2023

Under Armour: Under Armour’s New Quarterback

In December, Under Armour announced Stephanie Linnaritz as its new President, CEO, and board member effective at the end of the month. She is also a member of Home Depot's board.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 10, 2023

Capri: Less Sunny for Handbags

Weaker December-quarter results and 2023 guidance sent Capri Holdings stock price down -30%. Chairman and CEO John Idol: “Our performance in the third quarter was more challenging than anticipated."

Thomas Paulson
Feb 10, 2023

Viva Las Vegas: Shopping Centers see a Bounce Back with the New Year

Las Vegas shopping destinations are back in full force in Q1 2023. The outlook for 2023 is trending positive as we saw an uptick in YoY shopping center foot traffic in January 2023.

Caroline Wu
Feb 10, 2023

Food Inflation’s Impact on Gas Station Visits

We dive into gas station chains and examine what they might reveal about the current state of the consumer. Similar to other retail categories, value is top of mind at the pump.

RJ Hottovy
Feb 3, 2023

McDonald's: Loyalty Program Continues to Beat Inflation

McDonald’s Q4 2022 update this week reinforced some of the ways brands are finding to navigate the inflationary environment – its effective loyalty program and other marketing strategies.

RJ Hottovy
Feb 3, 2023

Diageo: What Its Results Tell Us for BevAlc Retail and On-Premises Consumption

Premium-plus spirits have experienced little to no downtrading despite inflation and concerns about the economy. And industry data for spirits shows that out-of-home revenue growth was ahead of at-home growth.

Thomas Paulson
Feb 3, 2023

Shopping Centers Benchmarking: Examining Average Dwell Time Among Lifestyle Centers

With Placer.ai’s new Shopping Center Benchmark function, CRE executives are able to look at shopping centers based on their categorization and filter based on additional metrics including visitors, visits/sq ft, visit frequency, and average dwell time.

Caroline Wu
Feb 3, 2023

Black History Month: Celebrating African-American Contributions to Fashion and Food

February ushers in the beginning of Black History Month, which gives us an opportunity to look at various locations and brands in the US that celebrate the history and accomplishments of Black Americans.

Caroline Wu
Feb 3, 2023

Dollar Stores and Five Below: Value is Key, but Merchandising Matters

Early 2023 trends for non-discretionary retail categories show that macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on consumers. But some categories have already posted year-over-year visitation growth.

RJ Hottovy
Jan 27, 2023

Primark: Selling Space in the U.S. to Nearly Double this Year

Primark's comparable-store sales were down modestly for its most recent quarter (Oct. 14-Jan. 7) in which it opened four new locations. Placer.ai data indicates visits per location decreased by 4%.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 27, 2023

Non-Traditional Anchors: Cheers or Jeers for Those Replacing Sears?

Sears was once the largest retailer in the U.S. and operated throughout the country. When it filed for bankruptcy in 2018 it began selling off locations, some of which have exploded with foot traffic.

Caroline Wu
Jan 27, 2023

The RealReal: Aiming for Luxury Resale Growth Ahead

Opportunity for luxury retail exists in luxury resale, which is often seen as the gateway to customers purchasing full price as they trade up or become more familiar with a brand.

Caroline Wu
Jan 27, 2023

Airport Travel: Normalization after Summer Peak

All of the top 5 busiest airports in the US saw increased travel in Sept 2022 compared to the previous year, with the past six months being particularly promising for LAX.

Caroline Wu
Jan 27, 2023

Universal Parks: Building More Thrills and Shrills, Dallas and Vegas Next

Overall visits to Universal Parks by domestic guests were down about 5% for Q4 2022 compared to Q4 2021. Universal's California parks produced a robust YoY increase, while Florida posted a decline.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 27, 2023

Tesla and the ICE/EV Transition: Musk Takes the Gloves Off

Tesla reported better-than-feared Q4 2022 results this week. However, the "new" news was CEO Elon Musk reporting that reaching 2M units in production and sales was an achievable stretch goal for 2023.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 27, 2023

In-N-Out Burger: What to Expect as the Brand Moves East

In-N-Out Burger’s announcement that it plans to open stores in Tennessee by 2026 as well as an Eastern U.S. territory office could have major implications across the QSR and CRE categories.

RJ Hottovy
Jan 20, 2023

Altar’d State: Additional Markets on the Horizon

This year we will be highlighting retailers that are expanding and that produce very strong unit economics and traffic. This week’s name is Altar’d State which is expanding at roughly 20 new locations per year.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 20, 2023

Happy Lunar New Year: Asian Brands to Keep an Eye on for CRE

On Jan. 22, more than a billion people globally celebrated the Lunar New Year. In honor of the occasion, we've taken a look at how Asian brands are impacting CRE in the U.S. this week.

Caroline Wu
Jan 20, 2023

Restaurant Outlook: Relief Coming in 2H23?

On the whole, the restaurant chains presenting at this week’s ICR Conference were fairly optimistic about 2023 plans but also acknowledged that inflation is still an unknown heading into the year.

RJ Hottovy
Jan 13, 2023

Return to Office Holds Potential for Apparel

Workers returning to the office, on a general basis, has the opportunity to fuel wardrobe upgrades, career wear, and visitation to stores in regions where offices are abundant.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 13, 2023

Aerie: Showing Strength as Lingerie Wars Heat Up

For decades, Victoria’s Secret was the undisputed queen in the lingerie category. However, newer brick-and-mortar entrants such as Aerie have begun to carve into Victoria's Secret's market share.

Caroline Wu
Jan 13, 2023

Boot Barn: All I want for Christmas…is to Be a Cowboy

We looked at three Boot Barn locations varying from California to Texas to North Dakota, and it proved customers can’t get enough Western Wear, especially as a Christmas gift under the tree.

Caroline Wu
Jan 13, 2023

Albertsons: Still Hitting Home Runs Despite Pending Merger

Albertsons' comparable-store sales increased +7.9% for the November-end quarter and loyalty members increased an impressive +16% YoY. Jewel-Osco was the outperforming brand in the portfolio.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 13, 2023

Tesla: Elon Musk Effect on Showroom Visits

With Tesla CEO Elon Musk in the news almost daily since his takeover of Twitter, does the Musk mystique begin to wear thin and have an effect on Tesla showroom visits?

Caroline Wu
Jan 13, 2023

Holiday 2022: Santa Came Very Late, But Made It by Christmas

Holiday sales were strong in the two weeks leading up to Christmas despite adverse weather. We expect sales to be better than the foot traffic data as conversion rate and average ticket should be up.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 6, 2023

Pet Supplies Retail: Maximizing Its Physical Real Estate

2023 is shaping up to be the year of maximizing returns on physical retail store assets. We checked in on the pet retail brands looking to get more utilization out of their physical stores.

RJ Hottovy
Jan 6, 2023

Angelenos Show Preference for Malls During the Holidays

We compared some of Los Angeles’ popular malls with shopping streets to see how shoppers behaved over the holidays. Compared to 2021, street shopping for Holiday 2022 saw an increase in December.

Caroline Wu
Jan 6, 2023

Easton Town Center: One of the Most Heavily Visited Open-Air Lifestyle Centers Over the Holidays

Surprisingly for wintery November and December months, Easton Town Center in Columbus, Ohio had more visitors than other open-air malls in California and Florida.

Caroline Wu
Jan 6, 2023

Chasing Powder: Hitting the Slopes for the Holidays

Winter weather means many are heading to the slopes for skiing and snowboarding. We analyzed visit and demographic trends for leading resorts across the country.

Caroline Wu
Jan 6, 2023

Auto Sales: 2022 Updates and Revisiting Our Mid-Central Electric Valley Theme

Over the past few weeks, we have had some time to revisit the ongoing shift from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) to electric vehicles (EV) as well as the implications for commercial real estate.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 6, 2023

The Wireless Wars Come to Your Home Office

The major wireless players continue to expand their fiber footprint in the battle to reach the most households. Many new retail locations are to be expected in the near future.

Thomas Paulson
Jan 6, 2023

JOANN Fabrics: Lots of Mending to Do

The crafting industry's post-pandemic hangover continues as traffic to JOANN remains down. JOANN continues to lag behind its hobby peers Michaels and Hobby Lobby.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 16, 2022

Consumer Electronics: Best Buy's Blueprint to Navigate Structural Changes

For the past 30 years consumer electronics product was prominently featured at the top of the must-have items for the holidays. Yet, that doesn’t seem to be the case in 2022.

RJ Hottovy
Dec 16, 2022

The Tik Tok Effect: How Popular Social Media Brands Translate to IRL Traffic

With so many Gen Z-ers taking to physical stores this holiday season, we took a look at visitation trends for some of the top brands trending on TikTok to see how they’ve fared this year

Caroline Wu
Dec 16, 2022

Let's Get Physical! Fitness Chains in Better Shape to Withstand Economic Volatility

With questions rising about the health of the U.S. consumer in the final weeks of 2022, we revisited our previous analysis of the fitness industry which has so far seen 2022 visits outpace last year.

RJ Hottovy
Dec 9, 2022

Agile Lululemon Navigates Building Industry Headwinds, VF Corp and The North Face, Not So

Lululemon reported increasing YoY store traffic and average unit retail (AUR). E-commerce increased 34%, making lululemon one of the rare large brands that continues to produce significant e-commerce growth.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 9, 2022

AutoZone on Cruise Control, Whereas Advanced Auto in the Body Shop

AutoZone produced another strong and consistent quarter despite the industrywide headwind of slower discretionary sales and inflationary cost pressures, capturing market share from Advanced Auto.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 9, 2022

Big Lots and Ollie: Why the Liquidators are Down

Big Lots and Ollie’s both produced another weak quarter. Difficult comparisons and the pull-back of discretionary spending by lower-income consumers are two common headwinds.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 9, 2022

Black Friday 2022: Better-Than-Feared, Tone Set for an In-Line Holiday 2022

Reports this week suggested a continuation of the trends that were indicated over the last several weeks when retailers reported their fiscal 3Q22 results.

Caroline Wu
Dec 2, 2022

Dollar Stores: Soft 3Q22 Earnings, but Finding Ways to Connect with Consumers

2022 has been a dynamic year for the dollar store industry due to the high rate of inflation and the lapping of last year’s stimulus. The one brand that has seen its sales momentum accelerate is Family Dollar.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 2, 2022

Kroger: Making it Look Fresh & Easy

Kroger produced another solid quarterly result with a consistent three-year comparable-store sales CAGR, in-line with Albertsons' CAGR but behind Walmart and Publix.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 2, 2022

Nordstrom: Growth in Physical Stores Offsetting Some of the Decline in E-Commerce

Nordstrom full-line stores' sales increased +8% in the physical store segment. this puts sales per square foot for the physical stores at $394, +22% above the $324 level experienced in 3Q19.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 2, 2022

Burlington and Nordstrom Rack: We’re Seeing an Improved Outlook, but 2023 to be the Test

Both Nordstrom Rack and Burlington have had a challenged year as they failed to flow the right brands, in the right categories, at the right value onto their shelves.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 2, 2022

Allbirds: Serious Issues Roost Here

Allbirds' weak 3Q22 results and 4Q22 guidance will only work to further agitate anxieties about the brand's business model and its expansion plans.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 2, 2022

Warby Parker and National Vision: Category's High Profitability to Hold Them Over Until 2023

Warby Parker is struggling to return store sales volumes above 2019 levels and improve customer acquisition growth. Some of this due to the industry having to move beyond the pull-forward of demand into 2021

Thomas Paulson
Dec 2, 2022

Sports & Entertainment: Are You Ready for Some Football? Experiential Marketing Shows Promise in the Face of Digital Advertising Uncertainty

Some of the biggest global advertising agencies are taking a pause on digital advertising. What may be doom and gloom for digital advertising might be beneficial to live events and experiential marketing.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 2, 2022

Box Office: 4Q22 Will be the Test for AMC to Narrow its Gap with Cinemark

As anticipated, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever came in with a roaring $180M opening weekend, only just behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ $187M and producing the 13th biggest opening of all time.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 18, 2022

Macy's and Kohl's: Crazy Comparison, Adverse Weather, and Inflation Squeezing the Middle-Income Consumers

Macy's and Kohl's noted the contributing factors to a sales slowdown beginning the second half of October. A late start to holiday shopping is expected to pick up as the season progresses.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 18, 2022

Walmart, Target, and Sam's Club: Signs of the Fed Getting Its Way: Labor Shortage Abating, Retailers Pushing Back on Supplier Prices, and Demand for Goods Moderating

3Q22 updates for the largest retailers in the U.S. took center stage this week, painting a more bifurcated outlook than many had anticipated. The summer's unwind demand for goods continued in Q3.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 18, 2022

Home Depot and Lowe’s: Structural Changes Position Home Improvement Retailers for Multi-Year Outperformance

The Home Depot and Lowe’s made news this week with relatively upbeat quarterly results. Much of the success can be traced back to structural changes in the category.

RJ Hottovy
Nov 18, 2022

TJX Companies and Ross Stores: New Better & Best Brands are Driving Conversion Rate and Average Ticket Higher

In Q322 TJX and Ross took market share in apparel from the department stores. We expect consumers shifting to off-price from traditional retailers to be an ongoing trend into spring.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 18, 2022

Dillard's Dependably Delivers

Dillard's put up another strong quarter that portends well for its traditional competitors' quarters as well. The substantial increase in Dillard’s profitability has come from improving its average unit retail.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

Grocery Outlet and Sprouts: Wow! Factor Strong for GO, while Sprouts is Soft but Stable

Specialty grocers Grocery Outlet and Sprouts Farmers Market increased their trailing-twelve-month (TTM) sales per square foot. Grocery Outlet’s growth and expansion strategy continues to be on strong footing, while Sprouts’ remains a "to be determined."

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

Adidas: Pounces on Puma Executive as Their New CEO

Amidst recent news about ending its partnership with Ye, adidas hired Puma’s CEO Bjorn Gulden as its new chief. Adidas is hoping Gulden can chart a path for growth when he starts in January 2023.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

Target's New Box

Target unveiled a new format store this week that is ~20K square feet larger than its average store. Target expects almost all new stores and more than half of the remodels in 2023 to incorporate elements of the new design.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

Kohl's: Leadership Changes, but Strategy Likely Continues

Kohl’s announced that CEO Michelle Gass is leaving the company and the Board appointed Tom Kingsbury to serve as interim CEO. With the announcement, came preliminary 3Q22 results including comp-store sales down 6.9%

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

Meta Layoffs: The Economy’s Mojo Shifts to In-Person Consumption and Infrastructure

We don’t foresee the hiring freeze and layoff environment changing for the better until the 2H23. As such, we expect to see very large layoffs in digital services in early 2023.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

Consumer Cutting Back & Trading Down: Redux of Holiday 2018

We believe Holiday 2018 offers the best parallel to the coming season. If history repeats, November/December retail sales will see a stepdown from October’s pace.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

Outlooks from Other Mass Luxury Brands

The September-end quarter from Ralph Lauren, Capri (Michael Kors), and Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade) were all better-than-feared and reflected stability in their U.S. businesses and re-investment for growth.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 11, 2022

DoorDash/Uber: Home Meal Delivery Surprisingly Resilient

In its quarterly update this week, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi noted a sequential strengthening in October compared to 3Q22 and no sign of consumer weakness in the US or Europe.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 4, 2022

McDonald’s and Yum Brands: Two Companies Beating Inflation, Two Different Approaches

McDonald's and Yum Brands are both beating inflation. While McDonald’s may be utilizing its marketing prowess to drive visitation growth, Yum Brands is more focused on value.

RJ Hottovy
Nov 4, 2022

Costco: October Comparable-Store Sales Update

Costco's October comparable-store sales (ex-gas) increased +6.1%, which was a deceleration from +8.0% in September. The three-year CAGRs were little changed MoM.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 4, 2022

October New Car Sales & Carvana’s Business

We took a closer look at Carvana's 3Q22 update to provide a view into what’s going on with used vehicle dealers. Units sold were down 8% (below), and average selling price (ASP) of $24K increased +3% YoY.

Nov 4, 2022

Estée Lauder: More Prestige Brands/SKUS Are Being Opened to Target and Kohl’s Versus Ulta and Sephora

Cosmetics has been one of the strongest performing categories in discretionary retail this year. Year-to-date, prestige beauty is the only industry that is growing in unit sales, per NPD.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 4, 2022

Ace Hardware: Visitation Trends Support Store Opening Plans

Ace Hardware has flown under the radar screen, and has been one of the pleasant surprises in the home improvement category. The brand's visitation trends have outperformed the home improvement retail category this year.

RJ Hottovy
Nov 4, 2022

Box Office Update: The U.S. Box Office Outlook Increasingly Brighter

Cinemark once again outperformed market expectations with its box office revenue growing 4 points faster than the market in what was a soft quarter. For 2023, theatrical releases are robust.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 4, 2022

Grocery Roundup: More than Value Driving Visits to Aldi, Grocery Outlet, WinCo Foods, and Trader Joe’s

While inflationary headwinds certainly explain some of the migration to value-oriented grocers, we examine how execution and brand affinity play a part in the success of these chains.

RJ Hottovy
Nov 4, 2022

HOKA, Columbia, and The North Face: Inflation Not Inhibiting Demand for Out-On-The-Trail Products

Last week, HOKA, Columbia, and The North Face reported Q3 results which revealed solid sell-in and sell-through trends for the companies’ U.S. retail and wholesale businesses.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 4, 2022

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Caroline Wu

Director of Research, Placer.ai

Caroline is an experienced insights and intelligence professional who combines brand and business strategy to achieve market leadership...

She has held various senior positions including US Director of Consumer Insights at Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, VP/Head of Retail Insights and Intelligence at Omnicom, and Senior Director at Kantar.  Earlier in her career she was a brand strategy consultant at Prophet, and has also worked client side in research and insights at 20th Century Fox and National Geographic.

Caroline holds an MA in Sociology from Stanford University and a BA in International Relations from Stanford University.

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Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more...

He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

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RJ Hottovy

Head of Analytical Research, Placer.ai

R.J. Hottovy, CFA has covered the restaurant, retail, and e-commerce sectors for nearly 20 years as an equity analyst and strategist for Morningstar, William Blair & Co., and Deutsche Bank...

R.J. also brings a wealth of experience with early-stage investments as an investment committee member for the IrishAngels / Vitalize venture capital group. Over the past three years, he has advised over 50 foodservice and foodservice tech companies on more than $200 million in early-stage capital raises and M&A transactions.

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