October retail sales appear to have rebounded from September’s slower performance, due to a combination of "mechanical" and "environmental" factors. From a mechanically factor standpoint, (1) September 2024 had one less Saturday compared to 2023, which lowered the month’s year-over-year growth rate, while October had four full weekends both years. (2) October includes a holiday—Halloween—while September does not, and shoulder periods between shopping seasons have softened each year. (3) October 2024 also faced an easier year-over-year comparison than September. According to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Sales Report, year-over-year growth for October 2023 had slowed by 350 basis points from September 2023. Recall that by late September and into October 2023, recession fears reached a peak as economists continued to forecast a downturn. However, in November, consumers seemed to ignore these predictions and focused on their holiday plans, leading to a strong season and end of the year.
Regarding environmental factors: (1) The end of September was impacted by Hurricane Helene, a storm that proved more severe than anticipated. October likely saw an increase in spending on supplies for the recovery effort (which our visitation trends also support below), with spending per visit for both preparation and recovery likely higher than average. October also benefited from stock-up activity ahead of Hurricane Milton, which, while less severe than expected, still prompted preparation. (2) Aside from Hurricane Milton, October was the first month in 2024 with “normal” weather—not exceptionally hot, cold, or wet. Also, it appears that most voters had already made their Presidential choices, meaning there was little "media effect" to distract consumers from their usual routines.
The table below shows how these factors impacted October traffic by sector. The largest increases from storm-related pantry loading and recovery spending were seen in the club and home improvement sectors, which aligns with expectations. Additionally, it’s very favorable for retailers and suppliers to be entering November and the critical holiday period with improving momentum.
