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August 2024 Retail Sales Update

Thomas Paulson
Sep 20, 2024
August 2024 Retail Sales Update

The August retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that retail sales accelerated less-then-expected from July. Moreover, July retail sales excluding autos and gas growth remained firmer-then-expected with both readings neither lining up with foot traffic or company commentary. And so, we hold the figures with a greater level of suspicion.

The trend for retail sales excluding autos, gas, mass, and food improved by 70 basis points to +4.1% growth, which was more in-line with our expectations. In our view, the improvement stems from back-to-school (i.e., a strong seasonal event) and the lapse of the transitory factors that depressed July. It also reflects a significant lift from pureplay e-commerce (“nonstore” retail according to the Census Bureau) and which is namely Amazon. Nonstore retail sales accelerated to +7.8% growth in August from +5.7% in July and represented a dominant portion of the retail sales excluding autos, gas, mass, and food at 38%. In other words, Amazon and other nonstore retailers have especially messaging savings and lower prices than before to consumers; as such, perhaps they picked up more back-to-school and back-to-college wallet-share this season than last; with that added market share giving the +210 basis points bump to nonstore retail’s August growth.

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Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more. He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

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