At a time when consumers are looking for small indulgences in a value-oriented society, cookies might just be the solution. Crumbl Cookies, a cookie chain founded in 2017 that’s grown to over 800 locations, has exploded in the sweet treat retail sector and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. With a mix of urban and suburban locations, Crumbl seems to have become a staple in many communities, with many fans.
What truly sets Crumbl apart from others in the space is its constantly rotating and evolving menu. Each Monday brings an entire new set of offerings, with 6 flavors that are interchanged. Like a particular cookie? You better swing by the store that week or you might not see the flavor for weeks or months. Crumbl’s manufactured scarcity of its menu has won over consumers and stands out among QSR operators. It’s also provided content opportunities for social media; creators will often review the rotating flavors of the week for their followers.
We can use Placer’s foot traffic estimates to help evaluate the success of the rotating menu concept and particular weekly menus. Year to date through August 2024, visitation to Crumbl Cookies is up 13% year-over-year compared to the same period in 2023.
Looking at the individual weekly performance, there were 15 weeks that overperformed the 2024 benchmark growth; 30% of the weeks that over indexed in Year-over-year variance had menus with one new flavor, meaning they were launched nationally for the first time, and 60% of the overperforming weeks debuted at least one debut flavor. Many of the new debut items were a limited time offering (LTO) dessert as well. Last week, Crumbl Cookies finally debuted its collaboration with singer Olivia Rodrigo nationwide, and visits increased by 60% over last year (with new store locations only contributing a little more than 10% of the year-over-year increase).
Not only does adding to the rotating menu drive higher levels of visitation, but it also helps to drive loyalty with visitors. Through July 2024, there was an average of 27% loyal monthly visits, with the threshold set at 2 visits per month. The consistent addition of items and manufactured scarcity of the menu create the “must visit” mentality for consumers, which continue to spur visits. A six pack of cookies, to try all the weekly flavors, varies from $22.99-24.99, so visiting each week can add up; but, consumers may still see this as a fun weekly treat or smaller indulgence.
Placer’s analytics can also measure the success of Crumbl’s promotions throughout 2024. In April, the chain announced that it would be launching “Mini Mondays”, where it would offer miniature versions of the menu flavors on Mondays only, with a six-pack savings of $10 compared to the full-size cookies. Comparing the periods before and after the Mini Mondays debut, Mondays are now the most visited day of the week and account for 20% of the weekly visits, compared to 13% before the promotion.
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Crumbl’s unique value proposition, based on product instead of price, is clearly winning over consumers, even at a time when value wars are taking over QSR. The rotating menu requires a lot of recipe development, communication with franchisees, and marketing efforts, but all of those have clearly paid off in winning the attention, and wallets, of visitors.
