As previewed, September was a softer month for reported retail sales given that it’s a shoulder period following back-to-school, was impacted by Hurricane Helene, and featured a calendar shift (four Saturdays this year compared to five a year ago). The U.S. Census Bureau Monthly Sales report adjusts for the calendar differences, and suggests that the loss of the Saturday was worth 140 basis points to the core number and 230 basis points to food services & drinking places. Excluding the shifts, the growth rate for core becomes +3.7% and food service +4.0% (i.e., decent rates).
Given Helene’s large disruption, we also suspect that the report's figures will have larger adjustments with an increase in the sample size in the following months (i.e. when these “advance” figures become “reported” figures). Further affirmation that nothing has materially deteriorated came from the earnings reports from the banks and credit card companies this week.
