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September Retail Sales: Softer Month, but No Signs of Material Consumer Behavior Changes

Thomas Paulson
Oct 18, 2024
September Retail Sales: Softer Month, but No Signs of Material Consumer Behavior Changes

As previewed, September was a softer month for reported retail sales given that it’s a shoulder period following back-to-school, was impacted by Hurricane Helene, and featured a calendar shift (four Saturdays this year compared to five a year ago). The U.S. Census Bureau Monthly Sales report adjusts for the calendar differences, and suggests that the loss of the Saturday was worth 140 basis points to the core number and 230 basis points to food services & drinking places. Excluding the shifts, the growth rate for core becomes +3.7% and food service +4.0% (i.e., decent rates).

Given Helene’s large disruption, we also suspect that the report's figures will have larger adjustments with an increase in the sample size in the following months (i.e. when these “advance” figures become “reported” figures). Further affirmation that nothing has materially deteriorated came from the earnings reports from the banks and credit card companies this week.

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Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more. He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

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