Thanks for Visiting!

Register for free to get the full story.

Sign Up
Already have a Placer.ai account? Log In
Back to The Anchor

Kohl's: Middle-Income Consumer Pressured and Summer Visitation Patterns Have Changed

Thomas Paulson
Aug 30, 2024
Kohl's: Middle-Income Consumer Pressured and Summer Visitation Patterns Have Changed

Kohl’s reported a soft comparable sales decrease of -5.1%. CEO Tom Kingsbury said:

During the second quarter, our customers exhibited more discretion in their spending, which pressured our sales even as customers transacted more frequently...Inflation and high interest rates continued to pressure spending, especially among our middle-income consumers. We are seeing the clearest evidence of this in the performance of our core apparel and footwear offering, which experienced broad softness in the quarter. To better navigate this environment, we are taking a number of actions to ensure that our customers recognize all of the enhancements we have made across product value and experienced during the past year. We are evolving our marketing message to increase consideration of Kohl's as a leading destination for value for the entire family. Our advertising has already begun to include messaging around lower price points across our assortment.

This matches up with our outlook for consumer spending this year – market share is going to where prices are absolutely lower than last year and where the value message is loudly broadcast. See our stories on the recent results from Costco, Walmart, Target, Amazon, and off-price.

Given that traffic in the quarter was only down -0.4% and comparable transactions increased, basket size was deeply negative–a curious dynamic given Kingsbury’s call-out on high- versus middle-income consumers. Revenue continues to be driven by Sephora at Kohl’s, with beauty sales up +45% driven by more remodels and a low-teens increase in Sephora comps (which is down from +20% in Q1 2024). (See our prior report on the beauty category here). Kohl’s noted solid performance for Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, and the Fourth of July; however, as shown in the chart below, the shape of the summer has substantially changed since pre-pandemic with these holidays sparking a lower lift and this year’s back-to-school period, substantially less so.

Schedule a Call

Required
Please enter your email
Required
Required

Thanks for reaching out!

I’ll be in touch soon

Go Back
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more. He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

Schedule a Call
Related Articles

Black Friday’s Big Winner? Malls

Black Friday 2024 provided valuable insights into consumer behavior as we look ahead to 2025. Placer’s blog highlighted a +2.7% increase in Black Friday weekend visits compared to last year, with shoppers focusing on value while also seeking unique and differentiated products, evidenced by strong year-over-year trends at off-price retailers like HomeGoods, Marshalls, and T.J. Maxx. Pandemic-era categories like home furnishings and sporting goods may also be seeing signs of a resurgence.The standout takeaway, however, was the evolving role of malls. Mixed-use developments and placemaking, a key trend for malls heading into 2024, proved pivotal this Black Friday weekend. Open-air and indoor malls saw larger year-over-year visit increases (6.7% and 5.0%, respectively) than retailers across all property types (up 2.7%). This was a trend echoed by operators like Simon, further underscoring the mall’s continued relevance in modern retail.Retailers remain integral to malls, but seasonal attractions, entertainment options, and a more diverse tenant mix have transformed malls into community hubs and prime destinations for both residents and tourists. These attractions have a symbiotic effect, driving greater foot traffic to mall tenants compared to standalone stores of the same brands.Need evidence that this strategy works? Consumers are staying longer. Our data shows that open-air malls experienced a 7.2% increase in dwell time over Black Friday weekend, while indoor malls saw a 5.1% rise. As we've highlighted before, the longer consumers spend at a mall, the more likely they are to make a purchase.A strong box office undeniably played a role in Black Friday visit trends and dwell time. Our data shows a nearly 250% increase in visits to movie theaters this Black Friday compared to last year (below). However, the data also reveals that many malls with unique holiday attractions and effective marketing strategies experienced increased visits, indicating that mall traffic was driven by more than just blockbuster movies.Taken together, our data reinforces that malls have become more vital than ever to modern retail, evolving from traditional shopping hubs into multifaceted destinations that blend commerce, entertainment, and community experiences. Changes in tenant mix have introduced a diverse array of retailers, including digitally native brands, experiential stores, and unique local offerings, catering to broader consumer tastes. Increased visitor attractions, such as dine-in theaters, fitness studios, and immersive art installations, create compelling reasons that drive repeat visits for more than just shopping. Mall-focused events, from seasonal pop-ups to live performances, further enhance the draw by fostering engagement and creating a sense of occasion. This strategic evolution has positioned malls as essential anchors in the retail ecosystem, blending convenience and experience to meet the demands of today’s shoppers.

R.J. Hottovy
Dec 6, 2024