We might be a month away from the official beginning of fall, but it appears that consumers have shifted that date up by a few months. While it does feel like the back half of the year creeps up slightly with every passing year, this year it’s felt like fall arrived on July 5 for many shoppers and engagers on social media. Need some proof points? Fall flavors, including the mascot of the season, the Pumpkin Spice Latte, arrived at Starbucks on Thursday, the earliest the products have ever been available at the chain.
Over at Walt Disney World, Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party debuted for the season on August 9th, drawing 9% more visitors to the park that day than last year’s first date, according to Placer’s foot traffic estimates. And, if it feels like there is no escape from everyone’s fall apparel hauls on TikTok from retailers like Old Navy, Gap, Abercrombie & Fitch and more, it’s probably true. At a time when the apparel industry has shifted to more weather appropriate and transitional collections for August, consumers appear ready to hit the ground running in their fall wardrobes; it might just be a coincidence that the eastern half of the country has been having a cooler week.
Is the change in consumer psyche around the fall season just a myth, or based in fact? From what we can tell, there might be some truth to the over-anticipation of the season. While we’re also in the midst of the back-to-school season and the return to the classroom contributing to traffic as well, retailers that have a stake in curating the fall experience for consumers have been seeing an increase in traffic over the past few weeks.
Looking at a subset of home furnishing retailers that specialize in seasonal decor, traffic over the last three weeks is up double digits compared to last year and are also showing the highest levels of growth year-over-year so far in 2024. That’s on top of comparable increases from the year before. There could be other factors at play including back to school and back to college spending, but combined with the demand for early fall decorating, retailers are clearly benefiting from this consumer interest.
Interest in fall fashion is also ahead of previous years. According to Google Trends searches over the past week, search interest for “Fall Fashion” is about 12 points higher than the same week last year. We are likely to see if this translates to visits to apparel retailers over the next few weeks as the buying season for fall trends continues. Based on our initial reads, traffic to clothing stores has been up in the mid-single digits for the first two weeks of August.
Finally, the pinnacle of the fall season for retail comes from its hallmark holiday, Halloween. As candy hit grocery and mass merchant shelves in the beginning of July, our data shows that retailers might just be responding to shopper demand for these items. Traffic to Spirit Halloween, according to Placer’s trends, has shifted earlier and earlier with each passing year, thus increasing overall visits, and we expect these trends to continue for 2024.
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What does this fascination with fall signal? Even as consumers focus on value and try to balance purchases, there is a sense that times of uncertainty push consumers towards nostalgia and comfort. And truly, there’s nothing cozier than fall throughout many parts of the country. We may see this changing of seasons happen earlier again as we approach the holidays against the backdrop of external pressures during the fall (as well as increased competition from Temu and others). But, for now, shoppers will have the chance to sip pumpkin drinks, light candles, and cozy up, even if it’s still technically summer.
