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The Anchor

Placer.ai's Executive Industry Intelligence Report

Black Friday’s Big Winner? Malls

Black Friday 2024 provided valuable insights into consumer behavior as we look ahead to 2025. Placer’s blog highlighted a +2.7% increase in Black Friday weekend visits compared to last year, with shoppers focusing on value while also seeking unique and differentiated products, evidenced by strong year-over-year trends at off-price retailers like HomeGoods, Marshalls, and T.J. Maxx. Pandemic-era categories like home furnishings and sporting goods may also be seeing signs of a resurgence.The standout takeaway, however, was the evolving role of malls. Mixed-use developments and placemaking, a key trend for malls heading into 2024, proved pivotal this Black Friday weekend. Open-air and indoor malls saw larger year-over-year visit increases (6.7% and 5.0%, respectively) than retailers across all property types (up 2.7%). This was a trend echoed by operators like Simon, further underscoring the mall’s continued relevance in modern retail.Retailers remain integral to malls, but seasonal attractions, entertainment options, and a more diverse tenant mix have transformed malls into community hubs and prime destinations for both residents and tourists. These attractions have a symbiotic effect, driving greater foot traffic to mall tenants compared to standalone stores of the same brands.Need evidence that this strategy works? Consumers are staying longer. Our data shows that open-air malls experienced a 7.2% increase in dwell time over Black Friday weekend, while indoor malls saw a 5.1% rise. As we've highlighted before, the longer consumers spend at a mall, the more likely they are to make a purchase.A strong box office undeniably played a role in Black Friday visit trends and dwell time. Our data shows a nearly 250% increase in visits to movie theaters this Black Friday compared to last year (below). However, the data also reveals that many malls with unique holiday attractions and effective marketing strategies experienced increased visits, indicating that mall traffic was driven by more than just blockbuster movies.Taken together, our data reinforces that malls have become more vital than ever to modern retail, evolving from traditional shopping hubs into multifaceted destinations that blend commerce, entertainment, and community experiences. Changes in tenant mix have introduced a diverse array of retailers, including digitally native brands, experiential stores, and unique local offerings, catering to broader consumer tastes. Increased visitor attractions, such as dine-in theaters, fitness studios, and immersive art installations, create compelling reasons that drive repeat visits for more than just shopping. Mall-focused events, from seasonal pop-ups to live performances, further enhance the draw by fostering engagement and creating a sense of occasion. This strategic evolution has positioned malls as essential anchors in the retail ecosystem, blending convenience and experience to meet the demands of today’s shoppers.

R.J. Hottovy
Dec 6, 2024

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Black Friday: Discretionary Sectors See a Stronger Start

Black Friday weekend drove strong traffic across most retail sectors, offsetting a shorter holiday season.

Elizabeth Lafontaine
Dec 6, 2024

The Club Channel: Everyone Wants to Join

Grocers like Kroger are taking cues from the club channel

Thomas Paulson
Dec 6, 2024

Dollar Stores Celebrating Less Temu This Holiday Season

Dollar stores rebounded with improved sales and less competition with Temu in discretionary categories.

Thomas Paulson
Dec 6, 2024

Outlet Malls: Ontario Mills Leads Black Friday, Arundel Mills Tops November Visitation

November traffic was stronger than last year, with year-over-year visitation increasing across indoor malls, open-air lifestyle centers, and outlet malls.

Caroline Wu
Dec 6, 2024

Holiday 2024: Time is of the Essence

Black Friday's shorter holiday season challenges retailers to boost visits, dwell time, and in-store shopping.

Elizabeth Lafontaine
Nov 22, 2024

Target/Walmart: It’s Complicated

Walmart continues to grow market share through price, convenience, and assortment, while Target faces intensified competition and struggles with profitability, basket size, and customer retention amidst shifting consumer behavior and cross-shopping trends.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 22, 2024

What Does Walmart’s Results Mean for Other Discretionary Retailers?

Walmart’s discretionary category success highlights its growing market share and competitive edge this holiday season.

R.J. Hottovy
Nov 22, 2024

Lowe’s vs. Home Depot: DIY Enthusiasts vs. The Foreman

Lowe's leverages smaller market strength, DIY focus, and loyalty program insights for competitive growth.

Thomas Paulson
Nov 22, 2024

"Must-Have" Tenants for 2025: Top Brands to Elevate Your Outdoor Shopping Center

Hybrid work boosts local centers with fitness, errands, self-care, home updates, and dining.

Caroline Wu
Nov 22, 2024

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Elizabeth Lafontaine

Elizabeth Lafontaine most recently served as Chief Retail Analyst at EnsembleIQ, a B2B media and insights company in the retail space, where she helped to develop new thought leadership focused offerings and served as a presenter and author. She’s spent her career focused on serving the retail industry and its consumers and is also an alumnus of Circana, Stein Mart and Macy’s.

R.J. Hottovy

Head of Analytical Research, Placer.ai

R.J. Hottovy, CFA has covered the restaurant, retail, and e-commerce sectors for 20 years as an equity analyst and strategist for Morningstar, William Blair & Co., and Deutsche Bank. R.J. also brings a wealth of experience with early-stage investments as a committee member for the IrishAngels / Vitalize venture capital group. Over the past three years, he advised over 50 food service companies on more than $200 million in early-stage capital raises and M&A transactions.

Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more. He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

Caroline Wu

Director of Research, Placer.ai

Caroline brings expertise in retail, CRE, entertainment, media, CPG, and tourism, and specializes in synthesizing broad datasets into actionable recommendations for growth. She has worked as the US Director of Consumer Insights at Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, VP of Retail Insights and Intelligence at Omnicom, and Senior Director at Kantar. Caroline holds an MA in Sociology from Stanford University and a BA in International Relations from Stanford University.

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