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Total Wine & More: Holding Onto Its Won Share of Consumption

Thomas Paulson
Sep 30, 2022
Total Wine & More: Holding Onto Its Won Share of Consumption

  • Following up on our previous reports on Total Wine & More and the BevAlc Retail industry, we circled back on the segment to see how traffic has fared for the category as consumption and spending have become more mobile, in-person, and abroad.
  • As shown in the first chart below from CGA, spending per on-premises venue has consistently been higher in 2022 than 2021. Moreover, the growth versus 2019 is significant at +25%. However, that growth rate is modestly flattered by the absence of venues that didn’t survive disruption from the pandemic. The growth versus 2021 (+8%) is all due to check value, as traffic is slightly negative. This is also largely true of the growth compared to 2019.

  • The second chart below shows off-premises retail traffic. Total Wine & More has outperformed all of its super regional competitors and the Midwest is suffering the biggest hangover from the 2020-2021 period.

  • Based on recent trends, we believe it's reasonable to assume that Total Wine & More finishes the year with a negative low-single-digit traffic decline and flat units-per-transaction. Given that spirits and wine prices are up 2% YoY (inflation), Total Wine’s sales per square foot will end the year at around $1,062, or roughly even with 2021 and 40% above 2019.
  • This significant capture and retention of growth is one further proof point of two of our main conclusions from the BevAlc report: (1) BevAlc retail is a superior category for sustained and durable growth, with isolation from significant competitive encroachment and disruption; and (2) the pandemic’s impact was benign, perhaps a structural boost.

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Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more.

He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

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