Last week, we took a look at where the retail sector stood after Q1 2024, with a focus on superstores, home improvement, athletic footwear and apparel, and beauty. This week, to mark the release of short visit data with Placer’s Data Version 2.0 (which better captures visits that lasted 1 minute or longer for QSR/drive-thru locations) and the publishing of our latest dining whitepaper (The QSR Dining Advantage), we thought we’d take closer look at where the restaurant sector stands after Q1 2024.
When we looked at the restaurant category in January, most chains were reporting that visits were down on a year-over-year basis (which was partly a byproduct of inclement weather across much of the country) but that there was a sense of optimism about 2024. Looking at trends by category, we see that operators were justified in this optimism, as visit trends have increased on a year-over-year basis for most categories since late January. After adjusting for calendar shifts for both Valentine’s Day and Easter, we also see strong fine dining visits for these holidays, indicating that consumers remain motivated by holiday and events (a theme we called out several times last year).
We’ve also been fielding several questions about daypart shifts given that the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index (an index of data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country) continued to show an uptick in visits during March 2024 and now stands at about 67.3% of March 2019 visits. Below, we show the percentage of visits by daypart for quick-service restaurant (QSR) and full-service restaurant chains. Given the lift in office visits, it’s not surprising that we continue to see improvement in early morning (6:00 AM-9:00 AM) visits, but it’s notable that we continue to see strength in late morning (9:00 AM-12:00 PM) and afternoon (3:00 PM-6:00 PM) visits. We’ve already seen many QSR chains test new menu items that better address consumer preferences in these dayparts–McDonald's CosMc’s is just one example--and we’d expect more in the months ahead. We also continue to see strength in late night QSR visits, something that we’ve called out in the past. On the full-service dining front, we see 2023 visits still down compared to 2019 levels, but with improvement versus 2021 in most cases. Here, it’s interesting that the afternoon visits to full-service dining chains in 2023 is down only slightly compared to 2019, while the gap during the evening daypart is much wider. This reinforces some of our previous analyses on earlier dining times
With our Data Version 2.0 update, we can now more accurately monitor dwell time by restaurant channel. After bottoming-out in Q2 2020 as most chains shifted to a largely takeout model, we’ve seen dwell time steadily increase across most restaurant channels the past several years. The QSR and fast casual categories remain below pre-pandemic levels, which isn’t a surprise given an increase in drive-thru and takeout orders compared to 2019 levels. Still, some of the operators we’ve spoken to have indicated that drive-thru bottlenecks have become more of an issue in recent quarters, which may reflect in the increase in dwell times for the QSR category the past 4-5 quarters. On the other side of the spectrum, dwell time for casual dining chains has fully recovered. We believe this has been helped by the continued popularity of eatertainment concepts, which have almost twice the average dwell time as most casual dining chains. We also see that fine dining dwell time now exceeds pre-pandemic levels, which may be the result of consumers’ aforementioned focus on holiday/event dining, which tends to drive dwell times higher.
Restaurant chains still face obstacles–the spread between food at home (grocery prices) and food away from home (restaurant prices) remains high and the $20 minimum wage for QSR workers recently went into effect in California (our data does not indicate major visit changes going into effect as it may be too recent for behavioral changes to be noticeable). However, March and early April visitation trends help the optimism that many restaurant operators felt at the beginning of the year. With Panera (and other chains) evaluating a possible IPO and many other brands finally accelerating growth plans (with an increased emphasis on higher-growth markets in the Southern/Southeastern U.S.), we’d expect visitation trends to remain positive on a year-over-year basis in the months to come.
