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Publix: Successfully Defending Its Home Turf

Thomas Paulson
Aug 5, 2022
Publix: Successfully Defending Its Home Turf

  • Publix reported stellar sales results for 2Q22, with comparable-store sales up 8% despite a modest decline in traffic per Placer.ai data. Compared to 2019, Publix’s share of visits continues to increase in the highly competitive Florida market as shown below.

  • Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) sales per square foot of $830 increased $18 QoQ and is likely to be up +5%-6% over the next twelve months.
  • TTM EBITDA and free cash flow were $5.1B and $4.1M, respectively, representing an 81% conversion rate. This compares to $4.8B and $3.5B in the respective periods a year ago. Over the next twelve months, both metrics are highly likely to be up mid-single-digits or better.
  • Profitability was lower with gross margins down 130 bps to 26.7% as Publix isn’t passing through all of its cost inflation. COGS was up 11% compared to sales growth of +9%.
  • 28 units were remodeled during the quarter and five new locations were added, bringing the chain to almost 1,300 locations at the end of the quarter.

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Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more.

He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

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