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Decker’s: Will HOKA Lap Nike Running?

Thomas Paulson
Feb 10, 2023
Decker’s: Will HOKA Lap Nike Running?

  • HOKA brand sales increased an incredible +$225M YoY (or +$1B annualized) during the company's December-end quarter, and the brand has a good chance of nearing $2.8B in retail sales this calendar year. For context, Nike brand running does about $8B in retail value on a global basis, and $4B in the US. Said differently, HOKA has had stunning success.
  • CEO David Powers shared that the, “FLY HUMAN FLY marketing campaign has been a key catalyst for the HOKA brand's direct-to-consumer (DTC) strength throughout the year, which has driven a higher growth rate than wholesale in each quarter thus far this fiscal year. During the third quarter, targeted marketing activations in Chicago and New York City helped drive a 22% increase in brand awareness, a 27% increase in consideration and a 33% increase on purchase intent in these markets over the next 6 months. We also believe these markets have seen a halo effect from the additional brand visibility created by pop-up stores, which have continued to perform well for HOKA...In particular, we saw significant gains among 18- to 34-year-old consumers...We have been increasingly encouraged by the broad product adoption from females in this coveted demographic, who appear to be actively searching hoka.com for what is new and exciting on a regular basis...The all-new Solimar cross trainer is a perfect example of this trend. The Solimar launched earlier this fall without significant marketing dedicated to the shoe, but still landed in the top 5 styles purchased by females aged 18 to 34 years old in this quarter...we see a great deal of more opportunity to further expose the brand's product depth by testing access points that specialize in serving this target consumer… According to specialty store data, during December, HOKA increased market share by 5 percentage points versus last year, delivered the highest average product turns and maintain a gross margin well above the channel average. In terms of our wholesale partner access points in the third quarter, we are extremely proud of the HOKA brand's performance as they continue to build market share in a highly competitive marketplace.”

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Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more. He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

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