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Aldi: In a Double-Digit Inflation World, Hard Discount Takes Share

Thomas Paulson
Sep 23, 2022
Aldi: In a Double-Digit Inflation World, Hard Discount Takes Share

Key Aldi Metrics

  • Continuing the "cautious optimism" trend that many retailers expressed two weeks ago, this week we also heard favorable comments about the pace of business from Walmart, Kroger, and Aldi (which has posted double-digit + comparable-store sales over the past year). Walmart also noted that back to school, tailgating and other seasonal occasions have been strong. (Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner also shared that inflation has moderated "slightly" for some commodities and general merchandise products in recent weeks).
  • Placer.ai data shows Aldi’s YTD traffic increasing about 12%-13% compared to 2021. Combined with +9% YoY food-at-home inflation (TTM), that should yield a 20%+ comp over the past year. In contrast, the category has grown +8%-9% over the past year (Census’ MRTS). As such, Aldi has earned some very significant market share gains. Food-4-Less has grown its traffic at a slightly faster pace, and Grocery Outlet a slightly slower pace; Trader Joes has been a little slower than the three. However, the conclusion is that hard discount has won meaningful share this year; we estimate that the four brands have added nearly $8B in sales over the year, more than the combined $7B in grocery sales growth that Kroger and Albertson’s produced.

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Thomas Paulson

Director of Research and Business Development, Placer.ai

Thomas Paulson spent 20 years as a Wall Street analyst and a member of asset management teams at AllianceBernstein and Cornerstone Capital, representing top-50 ownership positions including Target, Home Depot, Nike, Amazon, Google, and many more.

He brings consumer related expertise and knowledge of enterprises in retail, CPG, financial services, telecom, and entertainment.

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