Visitation trends for Placer’s Shopping Center industry classification (an aggregation of national shopping centers of all types) are running similar to last year, but down from pre-pandemic levels. Given the consumer pull-back experienced in October, we’d characterize visitation trends even with 2021 and 2022 as a victory, and even more so given the disengagement by less affluent households, which we discussed last week. Moreover, momentum improved into this past weekend--Shopping Center visits started down -14% to pre-pandemic levels and that improved to around -10% by this weekend.
Placer’s Superstores industry classification (a composite of mass merchant and warehouse club retailers) is running above 2017 and 2021, but below 2018 and 2022. Compared to 2022, the trend is down -4%, which likely reflects the pullback by the less affluent. Versus pre-pandemic averages, the season started slow, but the momentum improved and is now running even with the pre-pandemic average. We see little reason for the trend to flag from here given the consumer trend this year of shopping closer to need, improving sentiment around the economy and inflation, and deals, deals, and more deals (which are expected to increase over the next nine days). For example, the improvement in consumer electronics retail for November (+12%)--which we saw when we looked at Best Buy's Black Friday visitation trends--is striking. That gain reflects great prices and deals over the Thanksgiving weekend.
